Saturday, August 25, 2012

Season Wins Analysis

Now that I live in Vegas and have better access to betting markets, I do a bunch of football analysis with a focus on season win totals and NFL props. Here's my Stanford season win totals analysis.

Predicted Spreads
Stanford -25.5 vs San Jose State
Stanford -20 vs Duke
Stanford +12 vs USC
Stanford -4 vs Washington
Stanford -14.5 vs Arizona
Stanford +6 @ Notre Dame
Stanford -3.5 @ Cal
Stanford -13.5 vs WSU
Stanford -17.5 @ Colorado
Stanford -16.5 vs Oregon State
Stanford +14 @ Oregon
Stanford -5.5 @ UCLA

Total Wins Probability Distribution (assuming each game is independent)
0-5 wins: 4.8%
6 wins: 12.1%
7 wins: 24.0%
8 wins: 29.1%
9 wins: 20.6%
10 wins: 7.8%
11 wins: 1.4%
12 wins: 0.1%

My Bets (Conference Championship games do not count)
Stanford Over 7 wins (-117) Current Price: -250/+210
Stanford Over 7.5 wins (-105) Current Price: -135/-105


Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

I'm not sure exactly why but this website is loading very slow for me. Is anyone else having this problem or is it a issue on my end? I'll check bаck later οn and sеe if
the problem still exіsts.

Feel frеe tо νisіt my pagе
My homepage ; water damage Tracy CA

Anonymous said...

Curгently іt seems like Expгessіon Engine іs the bеst blogging platfoгm out therе гight now.
(from what I've read) Is that what you'rе uѕіng
on yοur blog?

Ηere iѕ my blog post ... storm damage repair
My web blog cleanup water

Anonymous said...

Good ԁay! I could have ѕworn I've visited your blog before but after browsing through many of the posts I realized it's nеw to
me. Νοnеthеlеss, I'm definitely pleased I came across it and I'll be bookmarκіng it
аnԁ сhecκing back often!

Alsο visit my blοg: water damage basement
my webpage :: emergency water damage

Anonymous said...

Undеniаbly believе thаt which you stateԁ.
Үour favorite rеaѕοn seemеd to be on the net the eaѕiеst thing to bе aware
of. I ѕay to you, I certainly gеt annoyeԁ while peoρle think about worгies that they just do
nоt know about. You managed to hit thе nail upon the toρ and
defined out the whole thing wіthout havіng sіԁe
effесt , people can tаkе a sіgnal.
Will likelу be back to get mоre. Thanks

Μу ωeb-site - water damage restoration equipment
Also visit my web site cell phone water damage indicator

Anonymous said...

Wonderful, what a website it is! This blog gives helpful data to us, keep it up.

Have a look at my web-site; レイバン 偽物

Anonymous said...

Do you have a spam problem on this site; I also am a blogger,
and I was curious about your situation; many of us have created
some nice practices and we are looking to swap techniques with other folks, be sure to shoot me an email if interested.

my blog post: オークリー ゴーグル

Anonymous said...

Hey very interesting blog!

My blog :: オークリー サングラス

Anonymous said...

Peculiar article, totally what I wanted to find.

Review my homepage; レイバン店舗

Anonymous said...

Yesterday, while I was at work, my cousin stole my iPad and tested to see if it can survive a twenty five foot drop, just so
she can be a youtube sensation. My apple ipad is now destroyed and she has 83 views.

I know this is entirely off topic but I had to
share it with someone!

my blog ...

Anonymous said...

Great beat ! I would like to apprentice while you amend your site, how could i subscribe for a blog website?

The account helped me a acceptable deal. I had been
a little bit acquainted of this your broadcast provided bright clear concept

Look into my web site 激安レイバン

Anonymous said...

I have read so many articles or reviews concerning the blogger lovers except this article is truly a nice article, keep it up.

My web-site - レイバンサングラス

Anonymous said...

What's up to all, the contents existing at this web page are actually remarkable for people knowledge, well, keep up the good work fellows.

Here is my webpage; オークリー サングラス

Anonymous said...

I used to be suggested this website via my
cousin. I am now not positive whether this put up is written by him
as nobody else understand such unique approximately my problem.
You're incredible! Thank you!

My web site: 激安オークリー

Anonymous said...

Hi, Neat post. There's an issue along with your site in internet explorer, could check this? IE nonetheless is the marketplace chief and a good element of other folks will miss your excellent writing due to this problem.

My blog post:

Anonymous said...

Appreciate the recommendation. Will try it out.

my homepage: レイバンサングラス

Anonymous said...

After checking out a handful of the blog
articles on your site, I seriously appreciate your technique of
blogging. I saved as a favorite it to my bookmark site list and will be
checking back in the near future. Take a look at my website as well and let me know your opinion.

Feel free to surf to my site ... オークリーメガネ

Anonymous said...

Saved as a favorite, I like your blog!

Also visit my web-site; オークリー 店舗

Anonymous said...

hello!,I really like your writing so a lot! proportion we keep up a correspondence more about your article on
AOL? I need a specialist on this space to solve my problem.
May be that is you! Taking a look ahead to see you.

Feel free to visit my blog post: オークリーメガネ

Anonymous said...

It is appropriate time to make some plans for the future and it
is time to be happy. I have learn this publish and if I
may just I desire to counsel you few interesting things or advice.

Perhaps you could write next articles regarding this article.
I desire to learn more issues approximately it!

My web blog :: レイバン

Anonymous said...

Thanks , I have just been looking for info about this subject
for ages and yours is the greatest I have found out so far.
But, what about the conclusion? Are you sure in regards to
the supply?

Here is my homepage; レイバンサングラス

Anonymous said...

Wow, that's what I was looking for, what a information! existing here at this blog, thanks admin of this website.

my web site - rayban サングラス

Anonymous said...

Appreciate this post. Let me try it out.

Here is my web site ... エアジョーダン

Anonymous said...

What's up, this weekend is pleasant in support of me, as this occasion i am reading this wonderful educational post here at my residence.

Here is my page :: プラダ

Anonymous said...

Hi there friends, its fantastic paragraph concerning cultureand fully explained,
keep it up all the time.

Feel free to surf to my webpage ... monster beats

Anonymous said...

The main benefit of Having Any Laptop Tv set Receiver

My blog; ViewSonic Pro9000 review

Anonymous said...

Software package Development: Ensuring Easy and Useful
Functioning within your Organization

Here is my weblog - casino euro

Anonymous said...

Refresh Your Energy With Philips Golite Blu

my page :: Panasonic PT-AE8000 review

Anonymous said...

Encoding For Point Tv

Here is my web blog; video Convert to Mp3