Saturday, August 25, 2012

Season Wins Analysis

Now that I live in Vegas and have better access to betting markets, I do a bunch of football analysis with a focus on season win totals and NFL props. Here's my Stanford season win totals analysis.

Predicted Spreads
Stanford -25.5 vs San Jose State
Stanford -20 vs Duke
Stanford +12 vs USC
Stanford -4 vs Washington
Stanford -14.5 vs Arizona
Stanford +6 @ Notre Dame
Stanford -3.5 @ Cal
Stanford -13.5 vs WSU
Stanford -17.5 @ Colorado
Stanford -16.5 vs Oregon State
Stanford +14 @ Oregon
Stanford -5.5 @ UCLA

Total Wins Probability Distribution (assuming each game is independent)
0-5 wins: 4.8%
6 wins: 12.1%
7 wins: 24.0%
8 wins: 29.1%
9 wins: 20.6%
10 wins: 7.8%
11 wins: 1.4%
12 wins: 0.1%

My Bets (Conference Championship games do not count)
Stanford Over 7 wins (-117) Current Price: -250/+210
Stanford Over 7.5 wins (-105) Current Price: -135/-105

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